Price elasticity of nonresidential demand for energy in south eastern Europe

Recent volatility in international energy prices has revealed South Eastern Europe as one of the most vulnerable regions to such external shocks. Under the current global economic downturn, in addition, the region’s energy-intensive industries are faced with the challenge of the weakening demand for their outputs. This paper casts light on the relationship between the price and the demand for energy. Based on firm level data, it is shown that the price elasticity of industrial energy demand is about -0.4 on average. There are a number of data issues to interpret the results correctly. But Albania and Macedonia are systematically found to have a relatively elastic demand for energy on the order of -0.7 to -0.8. In these countries, therefore, price adjustments would be one of the effective policy options to balance demand with supply during the period of energy crisis. In other countries, the demand response would be much weaker; pricing cannot be the only solution. Other policy measures, such as facilitation of firm energy efficiency and improvements in the quality of infrastructure services, may be required.Energy Production and Transportation,Markets and Market Access,Economic Theory&Research,Energy Demand,Environment and Energy Efficiency

(UN)Bundling public-private partnership contracts in the water sector : competition in auctions and economies of scale in operation

In public-private partnership transactions in the water sector, one of the alleged concerns is that there is little market competition at the auction stage. This paper casts light on a tradeoff between the competition effect at the auction level and potential economies of scale in service operation. If the authorities design a large-scale public-private partnership water transaction, it is expected to exploit operational scale economies. But the competition effect may have to be sacrificed. The paper shows a risk that the selection of the contract size could be a very restrictive condition that excludes many prospective bidders. Moreover, the paper quantifies the optimal size of public-private partnership contracts in the sector by estimating a cost function. The analysis shows that economies of scale exist but tend to diminish quickly as production increases. When the amount of water sold exceeds about 40 million m3, the statistical significance of economies of scale disappears. And there is no rationale for auctioning the water operation with annual water delivery of more than 400 million m3 under a single contract.Town Water Supply and Sanitation,Water Supply and Sanitation Governance and Institutions,Water and Industry,Water Conservation,Urban Water Supply and Sanitation

Effects of improving infrastructure quality on business costs : evidence from firm-level data

Economic development is affected by infrastructure services in both volume and quality terms. However, the quality of infrastructure is relatively difficult to measure and assess. The current paper, using firm-level data collected by a business environment assessment survey in 26 countries in Europe and Central Asia, estimates the marginal impacts on firm costs of infrastructure quality. The results suggest that the reliability or continuity of services is important for business performance. Firm costs significantly increase when electricity outages occur more frequently and theaverage outage duration becomes longer. Similarly, increased hours of water supply suspensions also reduce firms'competitiveness. In these countries, it is found that the total benefit for the economy from eliminating the existing electricity outages ranges from 0.5 to 6 percent of gross domestic product. If all water suspensions are removed, the economy could receive a gain of about 0.5 to 2 percent of gross domestic product. By contrast, the quality of telecommunications services seems to have no significant impact.Transport Economics Policy&Planning,Town Water Supply and Sanitation,Private Participation in Infrastructure,Infrastructure Economics,Urban Slums Upgrading

Estimating global climate change impacts on hydropower projects : applications in India, Sri Lanka and Vietnam

The world is faced with considerable risk and uncertainty about climate change. Particular attention has been paid increasingly to hydropower generation in recent years because it is renewable energy. However, hydropower is among the most vulnerable industries to changes in global and regional climate. This paper aims to examine the possibility of applying a simple vector autoregressive model to forecast future hydrological series and evaluate the resulting impact on hydropower projects. Three projects are considered - in India, Sri Lanka, and Vietnam. The results are still tentative in terms of both methodology and implications; but the analysis shows that the calibrated dynamic forecasts of hydrological series are much different from the conventional reference points in the 90 percent dependable year. The paper also finds that hydrological discharges tend to increase with rainfall and decrease with temperature. The rainy season would likely have higher water levels, but in the lean season water resources would become even more limited. The amount of energy generated would be affected to a certain extent, but the project viability may not change so much. Comparing the three cases, it is suggested that having larger installed capacity and some storage capacity might be useful to accommodate future hydrological series and seasonality. A broader assessment will be called for at the project preparation stage.Climate Change,Hydro Power,Energy Production and Transportation,Water and Energy,Global Environment Facility

Efficiency in the Pakistani Banking Industry: Empirical Evidence after the Structural Reform in the Late 1990s

This article examines the change in technical (in)efficiency of the Pakistani banking industry after the structural reform started in the late 1990s. With international assistance, the Pakistani government has undertaken the restructuring and preparation for privatisation of national commercial and development banks, of which the main goal is the improvement of the efficiency in financial markets. Despite the small sample size, the estimated stochastic production frontier indicates that employees are statistically productive, but capital in terms of branch network is not productive. This is an example counter to the common view that in a less developed banking industry, employees are too often idle and are not productive at all. It is also shown that the efficiency performance of the structural adjustment programmes is in marked contrast among banks. Some banks are found to have improved their technical efficiency during the reform period, while the efficiency improvement of others was ambiguous.

Joint bidding in infrastructure procurement

To utilize public resources efficiently, it is required to take full advantage of competition in public procurement auctions. Joint bidding practices are one of the possible ways of facilitating auction competition. In theory, there are pros and cons. It may enable firms to pool their financial and experiential resources and remove barriers to entry. On the other hand, it may reduce the degree of competition and can be used as a cover for collusive behavior. The paper empirically addresses whether joint bidding is pro- or anti-competitive in Official Development Assistance procurement auctions for infrastructure projects. It reveals the possible risk of relying too much on a foreign bidding coalition and may suggest the necessity of overseeing it. The data reveal no strong evidence that joint bidding practices are compatible with competition policy, except for a few cases. In road procurements, coalitional bidding involving both local and foreign firms has been found pro-competitive. In the water and sewage sector, local joint bidding may be useful to draw out better offers from potential contractors. Joint bidding composed of only foreign companies is mostly considered anti-competitive.Investment and Investment Climate,ICT Policy and Strategies,Markets and Market Access,Public Sector Corruption&Anticorruption Measures,Access to Markets

Procurement efficiency for infrastructure development and financial needs reassessed

Infrastructure is the engine for economic growth. The international donor community has spent about 70-100 billion U.S. dollars on infrastructure development in developing countries every year. However, it is arguable whether these financial resources are used efficiently, particularly whether the current infrastructure procurement prices are appropriate. Without doubt a key is competition to curb public procurement costs. This paper analyzes procurement data from multi and bilateral official development projects in three infrastructure sectors: roads, electricity, and water and sanitation. The findings show that the competition effect is underutilized. To take full advantage of competition, at least seven bidders are needed in the road and water sectors, while three may be enough in the power sector. The paper also shows that not only competition, but also auction design, especially lot division, is crucial for reducing unit costs of infrastructure. Based on the estimated efficient unit costs, the annual financial needs are estimated at approximately 360 billion U.S. dollars. By promoting competition, the developing world might be able to save at most 8.2 percent of total infrastructure development costs.Transport Economics Policy&Planning,Investment and Investment Climate,E-Business,Debt Markets,Infrastructure Economics

Aid Effectiveness Revisited: Comparative Studies of Modalities of Aid to Asia and Africa

This paper provides a variety of evidence that shows that in Asia, aid leveraged private investment in the long run, while in Africa the correlation between aid and domestic investment was at best ambiguous. Aid in Africa was diametrically opposite to that of Asia in terms of the amounts the countries received, the sector compositions, the size of individual projects, and the intensity of donor involvement. The sharp contrast in aid effectiveness between Asia and Africa could be attributed at least in part to those differences in the modality of aid delivery. Based on the above analysis, the paper concludes with a few suggestions that could link aid more closely to private investment, and avoid pitfalls that Africa experienced.Official development assistance, Aid effectiveness, Foreign direct investment, East Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa

Bidder asymmetry in infrastructure procurement : are there any fringe bidders ?

Asymmetric auctions are among the most rapidly growing areas in the auction literature. The potential benefits from improved auction efficiency are expected to be enormous in public procurement auctions related to official development projects. Entrant bidders are considered a key to enhance competition in an auction and break potential collusive arrangements among incumbent bidders. Asymmetric auction theory predicts that weak (fringe) bidders would bid more aggressively when they are faced with a strong (incumbent) opponent. Using official development assistance procurement data, this paper finds that in the major infrastructure sectors, entrants submitted systematically aggressive bids in the presence of an incumbent bidder. The findings also show that a high concentration of incumbents in an auction would harm auction efficiency, raising procurement costs. The results suggest that auctioneers should encourage fringe bidders to actively participate in the bidding process while maintaining the quality of the projects. This is conducive to enhancing competitive circumstances in public procurements and improving allocative efficiency.Investment and Investment Climate,Government Procurement,Debt Markets,E-Business,Infrastructure Economics

what is missing between agricultural growth and infrastructure development ? cases of coffee and dairy in Africa

Although it is commonly believed that aggregate economic growth must be associated with public infrastructure stocks, the possible infrastructure needs and effects are different from industry to industry. The agriculture sector is typical. Various infrastructures would affect agriculture growth differently depending on the type of commodity. This paper finds that a general transport network is essential to promote coffee and cocoa production, perhaps along with irrigation facilities, depending on local rainfall. Conversely, along with the transport network, the dairy industry necessitates rural water supply services as well. In some African countries, a 1 percent improvement in these key aspects of infrastructure could raise GDP by about 0.1-0.4 percent, and by possibly by several percent in some cases.Transport Economics Policy&Planning,Economic Theory&Research,Crops&Crop Management Systems,Food&Beverage Industry,Rural Development Knowledge&Information Systems